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If you know how to add a new plugin, you know how to connect your website-it’s that easy. The conjunction fallacy is common, but once you know what it is, you can take steps to avoid it.HubSpot is our top CRM pick overall, and you can easily connect your WordPress site in a few clicks. When asked to estimate probability or percentages, think about a finite number, like 100 people.When hearing a complicated explanation that has too many convenient assumptions or vivid details (like an investment pitch for a business or an explanation for what caused a phenomenon), be aware that each additional assumption lowers the likelihood of it being true.Kahneman suggests this might be because this framing causes people to visualize 100 people in a room, and then they realize it’s clearly a mistake to have the group of feminist bank tellers be larger than the group of bank tellers. When presented this way, many people realize the fallacy and change their answers to be statistically valid. Bank tellers and active in the feminist movement? _ of 100.There are 100 people who fit the description above. Using the Linda example again, the questions would change to: Interestingly, there is a way to remove the conjunction bias by focusing people to name specific quantities, rather than just estimate percentages. Many more people get the correct answer here. System 1 doesn’t have a chance to build an overall narrative here, so it becomes a pure statistical problem, and System 2 takes over. Surprisingly, the conjunction fallacy is not invoked when a story doesn’t have coherence: (Shortform note: if you’re interested, here’s a link with more examples.) This is a problem when listening to forecasters- adding details to scenarios makes them more persuasive, but less likely to come true. Again, if you chose #2, you were vulnerable to the conjunction fallacy. The latter sounds more plausible because of the vividness of its detail-you can picture the cause of the flood. An earthquake in California that causes a flood in which more than 1,000 people drown. A massive flood in North America in which more than 1,000 people drown.Ģ. Here’s another conjunction fallacy example. (If you fell for this, don’t feel bad-over 85% of undergraduate students chose the second option.) This is an example of the conjunction fallacy or conjunction bias. However, 2 explicitly mentioned a coherent story and thus seemed more representative of Linda, even though it’s more statistically unlikely. 1 is clearly a broader option than 2-there are many bank tellers who aren’t active in the feminist movement-so 1 should always be more likely. If you guessed 2, you fell for the conjunction fallacy. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.Ģ. Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. Conjunction Fallacy Examples Conjunction Fallacy Example #1
We’ll cover two examples of the conjunction fallacy and how to counter this bias. The best way to illustrate this is with a conjunction fallacy example. Often, extra details that create a coherent story make the events in that story seem more probable, even though the extra conditions needing to be met make the conjunction less probable. What is the conjunction fallacy? How can you avoid it?Ĭonjunction fallacy is the belief that the conjunction of two events happening is more probable than one happening.
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Like this article? Sign up for a free trial here. Shortform has the world's best summaries of books you should be reading. This article is an excerpt from the Shortform summary of "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman.